Breakaway Stats
NHL Analytics Platform
NHL · 2026-27 season

Betting Models

Our models pick NHL bets every night, and every bet is graded at a real sportsbook's price. Here are the best ones this season, how they did last night, and how many bets they have tonight.

Last night's best
Brief Value
2-0 · +3.0u
Tonight
Posting soon

Tonight's bets post on the members' dashboard and in Discord before the first game.

Top models this season

The 8 models up the most this season (each with 30+ graded bets). The list is set every Monday.

How to read this: a unit (u) is one standard bet. +10u means up ten bets' worth, whatever you bet each time. ROI is profit per bet. Leans are a model's second-tier plays; a model's record counts them only where they've made money. Hot means one of the models up the most over the last 5 nights.
  1. 1

    Shots Under

    Shots on goal

    Shots-on-goal unders for shooters whose volume has quietly dropped.

    Record
    154-108
    Units
    +34.6u
    ROI
    +13%
    Last 14 days
    +1.4u
    Counts: Picks + leans · 262 bets
  2. 2

    Team Trends Puck Line

    Game linesHot

    The puck line on Team Trends' moneyline picks, taken only where that price band and home/road split has a record of covering. Updates itself as games settle.

    Record
    43-33
    Units
    +13.5u
    ROI
    +18%
    Last 14 days
    +14.5u
    Counts: Picks · 76 bets
  3. 3

    Vibe O/U

    Game lines

    Game totals from a checklist of scoring flags, including head-to-head history.

    Record
    92-77
    Units
    +8.9u
    ROI
    +5%
    Last 14 days
    -1.3u
    Counts: Leans · 169 bets
  4. 4

    Brief Value

    Player props

    Takes every player named in the morning email and bets their shots, points and goal props only where the best price across BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel beats our projection.

    Record
    34-47
    Units
    +8.4u
    ROI
    +10%
    Last 14 days
    +5.5u
    Counts: Picks · 81 bets
  5. 5

    Elite

    Player props

    Only the props that clear every quality gate at once — usually a short card, often empty.

    Record
    34-22
    Units
    +5.8u
    ROI
    +10%
    Last 14 days
    +2.9u
    Counts: Picks · 56 bets
  6. 6

    Home/Away Edge

    Player props

    1+ point bets on in-form players who score well against tonight's opponent: career points per game vs that team, last 5 games, top line or PP1, with stricter rules on the road.

    Record
    109-74
    Units
    +4.7u
    ROI
    +3%
    Last 14 days
    -4.6u
    Counts: Picks · 183 bets
  7. 7

    Shots Under 1.5

    Shots on goal

    Low-volume shooters under 1.5 shots: players whose career and recent rates are both at or below the line. Record starts 2026-09-29 — earlier picks were backtested and are not counted.

    Record
    71-59
    Units
    +4.0u
    ROI
    +3%
    Last 14 days
    -6.5u
    Counts: Picks · 130 bets
  8. 8

    Mispriced

    Player props

    Point props where the price looks off relative to recent form and role.

    Record
    100-96
    Units
    +2.5u
    ROI
    +1%
    Last 14 days
    -1.5u
    Counts: Leans · 196 bets

Last night · Wednesday, Nov 11

Every bet the top models made, graded. Tap a model to see its bets.

Shots Under7 bets · show3-40.0u
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH
    Under 1.5 SOG · +135
    +1.4u
  • Will CuylleNYR
    Under 1.5 SOG · +135
    +1.4u
  • Yanni GourdeTBL
    Under 1.5 SOG · -170
    -1.0u
  • Ryan Nugent-HopkinsEDM
    Under 1.5 SOG · +130
    +1.3u
  • Alex KillornANA
    Under 1.5 SOG · -110
    -1.0u
  • Brett HowdenVGK
    Under 1.5 SOG · -170
    -1.0u
  • Brayden McNabbVGK
    Under 1.5 SOG · -155
    -1.0u
Team Trends Puck Line5 bets · show3-2+0.9u
  • NSH +1.5 Puck Line
    -198
    +0.5u
  • CGY +1.5 Puck Line
    -215
    -1.0u
  • EDM -1.5 Puck Line
    +124
    -1.0u
  • TBL -1.5 Puck Line
    +190
    +1.9u
  • SJS +1.5 Puck Line
    -194
    +0.5u
Vibe O/U2 bets · show1-10.0u
  • Over 6.5 Game Total
    UTA@VGK · -105
    +1.0u
  • Over 6.5 Game Total
    PHI@EDM · +110
    -1.0u
Brief Value2 bets · show2-0+3.0u
  • Nikita KucherovTBL
    Over 3.5 SOG · +185
    +1.9u
  • Tommy NovakPIT
    Under 0.5 Points · +110
    +1.1u
Home/Away Edge3 bets · show1-2-1.4u
  • Mikael GranlundANA
    Over 0.5 Points · -175
    +0.6u
  • Zach BensonBUF
    Over 0.5 Points · -135
    -1.0u
  • Rasmus DahlinBUF
    Over 0.5 Points · -150
    -1.0u
Shots Under 1.55 bets · show3-2+0.5u
  • Charle-Edouard D'AstousTBL
    Under 1.5 SOG · -105
    +1.0u
  • Judd CaulfieldANA
    Under 1.5 SOG · -125
    +0.8u
  • Simon NemecCGY
    Under 1.5 SOG · -125
    -1.0u
  • Aydar SunievCGY
    Under 1.5 SOG · -130
    +0.8u
  • Shane WrightNSH
    Under 1.5 SOG · -140
    -1.0u
Mispriced5 bets · show1-4-2.9u
  • Gabe PerreaultNYR
    Over 0.5 Points · +100
    -1.0u
  • Matvei MichkovPHI
    Over 0.5 Points · +106
    +1.1u
  • Tristan LuneauANA
    Over 0.5 Points · +160
    -1.0u
  • Tommy NovakPIT
    Over 0.5 Points · -115
    -1.0u
  • Zach BensonBUF
    Over 0.5 Points · -150
    -1.0u

Parlays · in testing

Point parlays from our Parlay Builder, tested since Nov 8. Shown here, never counted in a model's record.

Parlay Builder 3-leg
The best point bet in three games · 1-1 so far
  • Connor McDavidEDM vs PHI1+ point
  • Jackson LaCombeANA vs NSH1+ point
  • Mitch MarnerVGK vs UTA1+ point

Wednesday, Nov 11

What members get

NHL Plus+ is where tonight's bets live.

The picks dashboard

Tonight's bets from every model before puck drop, each with the price and its record. Follow the models you like.

The members' Discord

One thread per top model with its bets each night, lineup moves as they happen, and a stat bot for any player's props.

How we grade

  • Every bet is graded at one real sportsbook's price (BetMGM, DraftKings or FanDuel), never the best of several after the fact.
  • Bets are posted before the game. Nothing is deleted, and losing bets count.
  • Records start with this season. A model joins the top list only with 30+ graded bets and a profit.
Models in testingShow

Newer models still proving themselves. Members see their bets, marked Testing. A model joins the top list once it has 30+ bets and a profit.

ModelSeasonLast 14d
Top-Line Value
Player props
125-154
-2.8u
+6.6u
Value Model
Player props
97-132
-16.5u
+0.6u
Victim Value
Player props
8-35
-18.8u
-7.4u
Multipoint
Multi-point games
22-45
-15.9u
-7.8u
Deep Dive V2
Player props
55-115
-26.3u
-8.7u
Revenge Value
Player props
138-161
-41.6u
-9.4u
Unified
Player props
82-83
-15.0u
-12.6u
Deep Dive
Player props
132-307
-83.8u
-30.0u
Every model's record this seasonShow

Every model members can see, losing ones included. Picks and leans (a model's weaker plays) are counted apart.

ModelRecordUnits
Shots Under46-35+21.7u
Team Trends Puck Line43-33+13.5u
Shots Underleans108-73+12.9u
Vibe O/Uleans92-77+8.9u
Brief Value34-47+8.4u
Elite34-22+5.8u
Home/Away Edge109-74+4.7u
Shots Under 1.571-59+4.0u
Mispriced Pick 25-1+2.6u
Mispricedleans100-96+2.5u
Super Picks30-21+0.9u
Multipoint Classic6-7+0.1u
Top-Line Value125-154-2.8u
Top Selector70-64-4.4u
Ref O/Uleans72-71-4.4u
Matchup Composite135-120-4.6u
Hypothesisleans18-21-5.2u
L10 Movers9-14-7.5u
Hypothesis55-59-8.5u
O/U Model47-54-9.4u
Team Trends160-124-10.0u
Ref O/U37-44-11.9u
Mispriced21-28-12.0u
Best Bet53-61-12.6u
Smart Portfolio82-74-12.8u
Edge Shotsleans91-96-13.3u
Unified82-83-15.0u
Multipoint22-45-15.9u
Value Model97-132-16.5u
Victim Value8-35-18.8u
Vibe O/U43-61-22.6u
Deep Dive V255-115-26.3u
Revenge Value138-161-41.6u
Deep Dive132-307-83.8u

Past results don't guarantee future ones. Bet only what you can afford to lose. 21+ (18+ where legal). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.